The research shows for the first time how Sure Start affected children’s educational outcomes up to the age of 16.
The study, funded by the Nuffield Foundation, analysed the effects of the expansion of the programme from 1999 to 2010.
This showed that access to a Sure Start centre improved all children’s educational outcomes through primary and secondary school, but was greater for children on free school meals, who gained three grades at GCSE.
This is equivalent to the difference, for example, between getting two Cs and three Ds and getting five Cs – and is six times larger than the effect on children not eligible for free school meals.
Sure Start also had a greater impact on children from ethnic minority backgrounds.
For children with special educational needs, Sure Start increased access to support for children at young ages, before reducing it for older children. At the age of 16, the use of Education, Health and Care Plans decreased by 9 per cent (or over 1,000 children per year) among children who lived near a Sure Start centre, compared with those who lived further away.
Researchers said that the effects were particularly pronounced for Sure Start centres that opened before 2003, as Sure Start Local Programmes.
These tended to have bigger budgets and more successful outreach programmes to families who could benefit from Sure Start but who might not otherwise have accessed it.
Between 1999 and 2010, Sure Start expanded as a network of ‘one-stop shops’ integrating services for families with children under the age of five under one roof. These ranged from ante- and post-natal health services, parenting support, early learning and childcare, and parental employment support.
At its peak, Sure Start cost £2.5 billion per year in today’s prices, but spending has since fallen by more than two-thirds as many centres have been closed.
Between 2010 and 2022, funding for Sure Start decreased by over two-thirds and over 1,340 centres closed.
In recent years these have been scaled back and replaced with Family Hubs, which is to receive £300 million in funding between 2022–25 in 75 local authorities.
The researchers said that even accounting only for Sure Start’s impact on educational attainment and SEN prevalence the findings suggest that the benefits modestly outweighed its costs, with substantial dividends among disadvantaged families.The programme’s benefits in reducing the government cost of SEN support offset around 8 per cent of this cost, and we estimate that for every £1 the government spent on Sure Start, children who attended benefited by £1.09 in terms of their lifetime earnings, solely because of better school outcomes.
It adds to previous analysis from IFS researchers which showed that almost a third of the up-front cost of Sure Start was offset by savings to the NHS through reduced hospitalisations.
Co-author and research fellow at the IFS Sarah Cattan said government spending overall on early years had 'significantly increased' since 2010 in early years, but spending on Sure Start has 'dwindled' with 'a clear shift' in government policy from integrated early years services towards the free childcare entitlement.
'The current Family Hubs initiative aims to join up family support services for children aged 0–18 with less than 5% of what Sure Start received at its peak,' she said. 'It seems unlikely Family Hubs will be able to go as far in realising the potential that this research shows early years integrated programmes can have for children and their families.’
Nick Ridpath, a Research Economist at the IFS and a co-author of this report, said, ‘Sure Start generated substantial benefits for disadvantaged children throughout their education, helping to close the disadvantage gap in attainment. Centres with more resources generated much larger benefits, partly because the extra funding allowed them to reach out to families who were less likely to engage with Sure Start but who stood to benefit a lot. The return on investment in integrated early years services that are given the resources to reach those most in need can be very large.’
Former prime minister Gordon Brown, the Labour chancellor who first announced Sure Start in 1998, told The Guardian, ‘The wilful destruction of Sure Start and the reductions of children’s benefits after 2010 has set back opportunities for millions of children’s futures. That’s why our country desperately needs a new Sure Start.’
He added, ‘These results tell us in detail what most parents already know, that if you provide a supportive environment to children in their early years and invest in their futures, the results will be life-transforming. I was determined after 1997 to create Sure Start to do just that.’
Brown and three former Labour education secretaries urged Keir Starmer to make a new Sure Start a focus of his election manifesto.
Neil Leitch, CEO of the Early Years Alliance, said, ‘This study makes clear just how vital children's centres are, not just as a places where families can go for advice and guidance, but also as a source of vital learning opportunities that support children's long-term development and, as this research shows, improve their life chances.
‘It is all the more concerning, therefore, that we have seen so many centres close over recent years. While the government’s new programme of family hubs is undoubtedly welcome, with the current rollout limited to 75 local authorities, it’s very difficult to see how the plans will compensate for the sheer scale of children's centre closures that have taken place over recent years.
‘If the government is truly committed to closing the attainment gap between disadvantaged children and their wealthier peers, then it's clear that extending this programme to ensure that all families, no matter where they live, can access these vital services is a critical first step.’
Niamh Sweeney, deputy general secretary of the National Education Union, said the report was further evidence that early years investment matters.
‘Unfortunately, such valuable support has been decimated, leaving families in desperate need of support. Now it’s early years professionals who are picking up the pieces. Our members tell us their work has expanded far beyond early education and can now include Speech and Language therapy; emotional and mental health support for families; parenting class and much more. No sustainable Early Years system can be built on the back of a workforce subject to such excessive and complex workloads in a context of deepening social crisis.
‘Family services need investment, so the all-round needs of children can be met. This must be alongside investment into early years settings, including Maintained nursery schools which provide the highest quality of early education.’
James Bowen, assistant general secretary of school leaders’ union NAHT, said, 'The decision to scrap Sure Start was a major mistake and support for young children and their families has to be properly rebuilt. If we get the support right in the early years, we reap the benefits in the long-term. Early intervention and co-ordinated help in the early years is one of the nearest things to a silver bullet when it comes to closing the attainment gap.'
Donna Molloy, Foundations’ deputy chief executive also called for ‘a new national vision’ for children’s centres and family hubs.
‘Regardless of the model (be it Sure Start or Family Hubs), the next government must prioritise three fundamental pillars of early childhood services: carefully designed and adequately funded family support, targeted help for disadvantaged families, and long-term evaluation.
‘High quality support for families can help mitigate the effects of disadvantage, leading to better results at school and ultimately better jobs, nurturing individuals who not only thrive but also contribute to society. Prioritising evidence-based approaches also means that taxpayers receive value for money, making every penny count in securing a brighter future for generations to come.’
Naomi Eisenstadt, the first director of Sure Start, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme the impact was 'startling'.
'This is the first project ever that was set up by government aimed at poor people that everybody wanted, which says something wonderful about how welcoming it was, how people felt it really helped their lives as their lives were lived, not how we want them to live.'
- The short- and medium-term impacts of Sure Start on educational outcomes is available here
