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How will Tory win affect early years?

In the wake of the Conservatives’ landslide election victory, we look at what the future holds for the early years sector.
Ceeda's analaysis shows the difference between average hourly delivery costs and funding rates for funded places for the 2020/21 financial year
Ceeda's analaysis shows the difference between average hourly delivery costs and funding rates for funded places for the 2020/21 financial year
  • Education Secretary and school standards minister keep their jobs
  • Reaction to election muted

DfE ministers

Boris Johnson was expected to carry out what was being described as a minor reshuffle in the days after his election win, but as Nursery World went to press, the Prime Minister was not expected to be making any immediate changes to the ministerial team at the Department for Education.

This means that Gavin Williamson, who retained his seat in South Staffordshire, is likely to stay as Education Secretary.

School standards minister Nick Gibb, the Bognor Regis and Littlehampton MP, who is currently minister responsible for early education and childcare covering funding, support for the workforce, curriculum, quality and the early education entitlements, also retained his seat.

A major reshuffle is likely to be postponed until February, after the UK has left the EU, which Mr Johnson has said will be on 31 January.

Sector changes

Where does the election result leave the early years and education sector? While promising more wraparound childcare for working parents, the Conservative Party manifesto did not provide detailed costed pledges for how it would pay for this expansion, and made no new commitments to increases in early years funding.

Analysis by Ceeda of manifesto pledges prior to the election revealed that a Conservative win would cost the sector the most. The research company estimates early years providers are facing a deficit of £824m in the 2020/21 financial year, allowing for pay inflation of 3.6 per cent, CPI (consumer price index) inflation of 1.5 per cent, and the impact of fee cross-subsidy across age groups.

Funding rates are forecast to fall short of 2020/21 costs by 39 per cent for two-year-old places and 21 per cent for three- and four-year-olds.

Government plans to increase the National Living Wage to £10.50 per hour for those aged 21 and above will widen these gaps further.

Dr Jo Verril, managing director of Ceeda, said, ‘The key message is “more of the same”. There will be no expansion of “free entitlement” places under a new Conservative administration, and the funding freeze will continue.’

She added, ‘Childcare providers will find some relief in the fact that the funding freeze will not be accompanied by further expansion of free-entitlement places.

‘There is no doubt, however, that many in the sector, and the communities they serve, face a very challenging future. We are likely to see increasing divergence between communities in the quality and availability of early education and childcare as providers struggle to bridge the gap between funding rates and rising costs.’

In response

Reaction from the early years sector was muted and warned of further funding shortfalls for providers.

Neil Leitch, chief executive of the Early Years Alliance, said, ‘Childcare providers may have been hoping for a change of direction for the sector as a result of this election.

‘Sadly, with the Conservatives failing to commit to any further funding for the early years, many will still be concerned about the future and long-term viability of their businesses.

‘We can’t go on like this – we urgently need funding levels to cover the true cost of delivering childcare and a firm commitment for them to be reviewed annually.’

Purnima Tanuku, chief executive of the National Day Nurseries Association, said, ‘It’s clear that the 30-hours policy is here to stay, but we need to make sure it is working for children, parents and childcare providers.

‘There are still many challenges in delivering this policy, which the new Government needs to face up to and address. Funding rates need to cover costs and allow nurseries to deliver the high-quality care we all want to see for our children. At the same time, the growing burden of business rates on nurseries must be addressed as promised.

‘There were no manifesto plans from the Government on how to tackle the workforce crisis in early years but we will continue to campaign hard on this issue as it affects nurseries across the whole of the UK. A dedicated, skilled and well-rewarded workforce is critical to improving children’s outcomes at a vital stage of their development.’

The Professional Association of Childcare and Early Years (PACEY) chief executive Liz Bayram said, ‘We welcome the new Westminster Government and their commitment to create more affordable childcare including before and after school.

‘Registered childminders are uniquely placed to provide high-quality out-of-school care. Key to this and current early education commitments will be the development of a comprehensive and sustainable funding strategy.

‘Too many childminders, nurseries and pre-schools are at breaking point because the current funding for Government-subsidised early education is not enough to cover the cost of delivering the high-quality experience all children, especially our most disadvantaged, deserve. This should all be backed up with a strategy that ensures practitioners are better valued and rewarded, and families better informed why early education is so important and the types of support available to them.’

Schools

The National Education Union (NEU) said the Government had inherited ‘a daunting to-do list on education’, which should include ending school cuts and investing in education, ending child poverty, addressing the teacher retention and recruitment crisis, replacing Ofsted with a fair way of evaluating schools and ending high-stakes primary tests.

Dr Mary Bousted, joint general secretary of the NEU, said, ‘There are massive problems in the system which the incoming Government must address fast. Schools, colleges and nursery schools face continuing, interlinked crises in funding, teacher retention and workload.

‘Disgracefully, a third of children live in poverty, and this has a devastating impact on their life chances and their access to education. While the Conservative manifesto said little new about children and education, schools across the country are collecting for food banks over Christmas or opening on Christmas Day to support children and families. Ignoring the scale of child poverty and the damage it inflicts isn’t an option.’

Paul Whiteman, general secretary of school leaders’ union NAHT, described education as ‘a public service in crisis that needs support’, and added: ‘Under the previous Conservative administration, we made progress on accountability and on reducing testing in the primary phase. We need to go further. Acting on child poverty must be a priority, for example.’